Why a warmer atmosphere makes the water cycle more erratic
The WMO says river flows, groundwater and glaciers show sustained disruption, with 2025 ranking among the driest years for global river flows in 35 years and below-normal discharge covering 36 per cent of the world.[3][7] Separately, Copernicus found that the atmosphere held more water vapour in August than during any other recorded month, increasing the risk of extreme heat and rainfall.[4]
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, while disrupted rivers, glaciers and groundwater leave communities facing sharper swings between floods and droughts; WMO says historical water patterns are therefore becoming less reliable for planning.[3][4][7]
Key insights
- Every major glacier on Earth lost ice for a fourth consecutive year, weakening an important reserve that helps balance wet and dry seasons.[7]
- Global heating contributed to August’s record atmospheric moisture, while the historic Pacific El Niño was also likely a factor.[4]
- WMO does not attribute every water change to climate change alone, noting that natural variability and pressure on water resources also contribute.[7]
- WMO identifies improved monitoring, data-sharing and early-warning systems as important tools for adapting to shifting water conditions.[7]